23 recent NFL first-round picks who may be on thin ice heading into 2023 season

Unless you’re a franchise quarterback encased by a nine-figure contract or a head coach with a dynastic run on your résumé – and even those categories are coming under increased scrutiny lately – job security in the NFL is essentially non-existent.

And the days of high draft picks (QBs, in particular) getting extra runway to prove themselves – and general managers more time to justify a questionable selection – are also quickly diminishing. Just a few years ago, it would be virtually unheard of for a significantly hyped player like Commanders DE Chase Young – the No. 2 overall pick in 2020 and Defensive Rookie of the Year months later – to potentially reach free agency after just four seasons. Yet here we are.

Quarterbacks – almost bulletproof on rookie contracts once upon a time – like Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen and Dwayne Haskins are among recent first-rounders who went to different teams after three seasons or fewer. WRs Kadarius Toney and Jalen Reagor, OL Alex Leatherwood and CBs C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah all switched teams after being taken in Round 1 … and just since 2020.

These are the realities of the league’s current market, and the reason why these 23 former first-round picks (generally listed alphabetically) could be on thin ice in their present situations going into the 2023 season:

RBs Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs

Barkley, the No. 2 overall pick of the New York Giants in 2018, and Jacobs, a first-rounder of the Raiders the following year, are currently stuck in the league-wide tailback purgatory – effectively set to play 2023 on the franchise tag even after Barkley’s one-year pact was sweetened ever so slightly. (Jacobs, whose fifth-year option was declined last year, has yet to report this summer.) And there’s no guarantee both won’t be back in this situation in 2024. To land the payoffs they want, neither back can afford a dip in production – yet a significant spike, even though Jacobs led the league in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage in 2022, might be required to secure lucrative multi-year deals with their current clubs or other ones.

WR Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens

He caught 15 passes in six appearances in a sophomore season cut short by Lisfranc surgery. Then Bateman went after Eric DeCosta on social media in the offseason after the general manager lamented his team’s longstanding challenge at finding adequate wideout production. With his fifth-year option on the line following the 2023 season, Bateman could benefit from what’s expected to be a more pass-centric offense under new coordinator Todd Monken … but he likely projects no better than QB Lamar Jackson’s No. 4 target behind TE Mark Andrews and WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and quicksilver rookie Zay Flowers.

OT Mekhi Becton, New York Jets

He’s played one game since his 2020 rookie year – injuries, his fluctuating weight and questions about whether he can survive on the left side all tarnishing the prospects of a player drafted 11^th overall. His fifth-year option off the table, Becton enters this season with much to prove – but with a great opportunity to restore his value if he can thrive in the new Aaron Rodgers-led offense.

WR Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals

He looks like another in a series of mistakes made by the Cards’ previous regime, arriving in a draft-night trade with Baltimore last year that cost Arizona a first-round selection. Reunited with college teammate Kyler Murray, Brown had 67 catches for 709 yards last season, but his 10.6 yards per catch and three touchdowns were career lows – though a broken foot certainly contributed to his depressed numbers. Brown enters his option year with Murray’s availability unknown and former WR1 DeAndre Hopkins in Nashville, hardly ideal circumstances to prove to anyone he’s more primary target than field stretcher.

QB Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

Your first reaction might be a scoff or eye roll, but stay with me. As exciting as Fields was in 2022, his second NFL season, the Bears finished a league-worst 3-14 on their way to securing the No. 1 pick of the 2023 draft. It would appear they’re trending toward .500 after trading that selection and bringing in extensive reinforcements during free agency – though WR DJ Moore remains the only firmly established weapon in Fields’ offensive supporting cast. It’s hardly outside the realm of possibility they could be in a similar situation next year as they were this winter, when Ryan Poles, while praising Fields, initially said of Chicago’s quarterback situation, "We are going to do our homework on this class," the GM referencing the 2023 draft's quarterbacks before adding, "and if something changes ... we have to be blown away to say, 'You know what? I think (taking one) is what is best for our organization.' "

Yet if the Bears remain bad, it’s perfectly reasonable that Poles might be "blown away" by a prospect like buzz-generating Heisman Trophy-winning USC QB Caleb Williams (or perhaps even another player in what’s expected to be a strong 2024 class at the position) – in no small measure because that would also allow Poles to reset the quarterbacking contractual clock as the New York Jets did in 2021 when replacing Darnold with Zach Wilson. In all likelihood, Fields returns – especially if his progression continues on its current trajectory. But this is a year when Williams' expected availability and financial considerations could add unusual pressure to select situations like Chicago’s.

LB Rashan Gary and S Darnell Savage, Green Bay Packers

First-round picks in 2019, both enter the final year of their rookie contracts under differing circumstances. Gary has been a steadily improving player who might have had his best season in 2022 had it not been derailed by a torn ACL in Week 9. Conversely, Savage has struggled, particularly in coverage, even though the Pack deployed him heavily in the slot last season. Gary needs to get off the PUP list, and Savage needs to get off the pine, where he spent part of 2022 – and they could wind up competing for 2024 cap space of a team that is obviously evolving following Rodgers’ departure.

QB Jordan Love, Packers

The 26^th overall pick in 2020, he finally gets his shot to replace Rodgers. Rather than pick up his fifth-year option, the Pack reworked Love’s contract – he got $13 million guaranteed to stay aboard the next two seasons while the team avoided a massive 2024 payout to an unproven player. Still, much is on the line for Love given a disappointing – or even average – season could very well lead to his ouster next year.

QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

He could be this year’s version of Carson Wentz, Mayfield with his fourth team since the start of last summer. After signing a one-year contract and finding himself having to beat out Kyle Trask for QB1 duties, this could be the No. 1 pick of the 2018 draft’s final shot at establishing himself as an NFL starter – and Mayfield will have to do it with a rookie coordinator (Dave Canales) who’s overseeing an unproven running game and overhauled line that isn’t necessarily better post-Tom Brady.

QB Kyler Murray, Cardinals

Unlike his contemporaries on this list, he’s financially set for life after signing a five-year, $230.1 million extension last year. But it was just four years ago that the Cards tabbed Murray with the No. 1 overall pick of the draft a year after trading into the top 10 for QB Josh Rosen. Fast forward, and Murray is recovering from ACL surgery – the latest question for an uber-gifted enigma who’s had to answer questions about his work ethic, study habits, on-field demeanor and maturity – and his return to action for what’s widely projected to be a bad football team remains up in the air. Make no mistake, pivoting from Murray next spring would mean serious cap consequences for Arizona – a release would incur an $81.5 million dead cap charge – however NFL teams have been increasingly less willing to spend good money after bad. Trading Murray would reduce the financial fallout, yet dealing a 26-year-old who’s allegedly a franchise quarterback is unlikely to return fair-market value given his baggage. But if Arizona’s 2023 season does manifest as a death spiral, whether or not Murray plays, rookie GM Monti Ossenfort – he also owns the Houston Texans’ 2024 Round 1 pick – could opt for a complete reboot, especially if Williams is the alternative.

CB Jeff Okudah, Atlanta Falcons

The No. 3 overall pick (by the Detroit Lions) in 2020, no corner in the common draft era has been selected earlier than Okudah. But he wasn’t effective in Motown when he was on the field – and that wasn’t frequently, injuries limiting him to 25 of 50 possible games since he entered the league. Traded to Atlanta (for a mere fifth-rounder) and afforded the opportunity to play opposite CB A.J. Terrell, Okudah might be facing his last chance to convert his once-vaunted potential into productivity and, perhaps, a decent second contract next year.

WR Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars

A first-round pick of the Atlanta Falcons in 2018, he’s just now reaching his fifth-year option balloon payment of $11.1 million after being suspended in 2022 for violating the league’s gambling policy. While on hiatus, Ridley was traded to the Jags and must prove to them he can be the player who caught 90 balls for 1,374 yards in 2020 – often benefiting from coverages rolled toward WR Julio Jones – and not the guy who hasn’t approached those numbers at any other point during his career.

DB Isaiah Simmons, Cardinals

A guy who entered the league without a position is still officially listed by Arizona at linebacker even though Simmons said earlier this offseason that he’s now a defensive back. Either way, he’s just playing for his job after his fifth-year option was declined. Good luck finding any other 6-4, 238-pound slot corners in the league – Simmons played more than 400 snaps there in 2022 – which is indicative of Simmons’ athleticism but a sign he might not find someone willing to make a heavy investment in him in 2024.

QB Tua Tagovailoa, OL Austin Jackson and CB Noah Igbinoghene, Miami Dolphins

Of the Fins’ trio of 2020 first-rounders, only Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option was picked up – yet even he has much to prove with 2020 draft mates Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts already extended with contracts averaging north of $50 million (with Joe Burrow likely to join them very soon). Tagovailoa may rank fourth among that very select group of passers, but he did show last year he can be highly effective – leading the NFL with a 105.5 QB rating – if he can stay healthy. It would help if Jackson has a better year blocking for him. He played in just two games last year due to an ankle injury but hopes to settle in at right tackle after failing to lock down a spot at left tackle and guard earlier in his career. Igbinoghene was a surprise Round 1 choice when it was made … and has done almost nothing to justify it since. Even with CB Jalen Ramsey (knee surgery) expected to miss most of the season, it seems more likely that Igbinoghene fails to make the 2023 roster than being re-signed for 2024 and beyond – especially after veteran CB Eli Apple joined the squad over the weekend.

LB Devin White, Buccaneers

Per ESPN, he requested a trade before the draft. That went unfulfilled as White heads into the final year of his rookie contract. He’s shown what an impact player he can be, never more so than during Tampa Bay’s run to Super Bowl 55, when he had 38 tackles, two interceptions and a pair of fumble recoveries in three playoff games. But White is also a player who can too often be overly aggressive and caught out of position. Be interesting to see where things land for an organization already in transition.

OT Jonah Williams, Cincinnati Bengals

He’s played every snap of his NFL career at left tackle but enters his walk year flipped to the right side due to the arrival of Orlando Brown Jr. during free agency. Williams requested a trade in the offseason, knowing – like former right tackle Brown – that the guys on the blind side tend to get compensated better. Williams has been Cincy’s most reliable O-lineman the past few years, but he must not only showcase his value but maybe also convince the team he’s a better long-term investment than incumbent (but injured) RT La’el Collins.

QBs Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Mac Jones

First-rounders two years ago, all three could see their fifth-year options declined next spring. Wilson (Jets) and Lance (49ers), the second and third overall picks, respectively, are relegated to reserve roles after Wilson played himself out of the QB1 job and now backs up Rodgers while Lance’s broken ankle and Brock Purdy’s ascendance led to the North Dakota State product's demotion. By comparison, Jones’ circumstances with the New England Patriots seem far more favorable – including the arrival of new (and former) offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien – but even he admitted the need for a “fresh start” with the organization after a highly disappointing sophomore campaign. Jones will have to excel with the AFC East’s least imposing set of offensive play makers and with second-year backup Bailey Zappe, who won both of his starts in 2022, lurking.

DE Chase Young, Washington Commanders

Even though he hit the ground running with 7½ sacks and 12 QB hits in his Pro Bowl rookie campaign, he’s been limited to 12 games since by a knee injury – and his ACL recovery doesn’t explain what had been a flat sophomore season before he went down. If Young rebounds, he’ll certainly be a candidate for a franchise tag or extension in 2024. However Washington’s depth up front could make him a luxury given fellow DE Montez Sweat currently appears to be a better candidate for a new contract.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.